The world is transfixed by Egypt. From Aden to the cafés of Aleppo, from Algiers to the malls of Abu Dhabi, Arabs are seeing how popular movements can precipitate the fall of dictatorial regimes.

The Tunisians have risen, the Sudanese are protesting, the Jordanian King sacked his government, the President of Yemen wrote to the Qatari Emir that Al-Jazeera is stirring trouble and other countries wait with baited breath.

Even Jeddah witnessed a short protest after heavy rains flooded areas of the city with stinking sewage. Needless to say these protests were put down immediately.

Saudi Arabia seems to have taken on the role of sheltering ousted dictators and political leaders – Idi Amin, Ben Ali, Nawaz Sharif. Their king has now offered Mubarak support. Saudi newspapers focused their coverage of the protests on lootings and are now playing down their King’s statements.

Meanwhile, Mubarak seems to think that ‘promising’ resignation following the September elections will satiate the protesters whom he condescendingly referred to as "young people". He then sent Omar Suleiman, the much-reviled intelligence chief and valuable CIA ‘asset,’ to negotiate with the parties concerned. It is remarkable that Mubarak chose a man who claims the country is ‘not ready’ for democracy.

Most analyses of the situation in Egypt focus on stark binary choices; old guard vs. youth, islamists v. secularist, people v. dictatorship. The realities of the political arena are complex and the people who have come together in the protests are from different backgrounds; NGOs, youth movements, labour unions, international organisations, legal and judicial groups and feminist groups to mention but a few.

The police, the central security services and the army have historically had varying trajectories and loyalties. The army is divided. The Air Force and Presidential Guard are still loyal to Mubarak whereas other parts of the army maintain a neutral position, at least for now. This may explain why General Tantawi went into crowds of protesters while the Presidential Guard protected national TV and radio buildings and at times even attacked protesters.

The $1.5 billion of annual military aid from America has not bought the loyalty of Egyptian generals who, over 30 years, have become nationalist capitalist businessmen. This group is turning against Mubarak because of his son, Gamal’s neo-liberal economic policies and his preference of doing business with Western, Chinese and other foreign investors.

Mohammad al-Baradei, although supported in Western Media and not necessarily popular in Egypt, has been part of the protests. Scholars from Al-Azhar, the famous Islamic University, in their distinctive grey robes and red fezs have joined the protests much to the delight of protesters. Members of the Muslim Brotherhood have made it clear that they are only part of a much larger movement.

It is evident that the protests have the support of a cross-section of society. What is startling is the subdued reaction of Western governments to these protests. Hague is more worried about the Peace Process being derailed than the rights of the Egyptians. France and Germany talk of ‘political transitions.’ When Obama addressed ‘the Muslim World’ in a speech in Cairo and talked about his "fourth and most important point, democracy." He said governments must rule by "consent and not coercion".

The same year, the US Government threw its weight behind the protests in Iran, even going to the extent of making sure Twitter did not shut down for scheduled maintenance. Today everyone is speaking in careful sentences about ‘stable change’ and an ‘orderly transition now’. Analysts focused on Obama’s use of ‘now’ but strikingly the ‘D’ word hasn’t been deployed.

Iran’s use of force to quell protesters was opposed with such vehemence. When Neda Agha-Sultan was shot in Iran the world was rightly sickened but there is little talk of the hundreds of people killed in Egypt. Security services are beating protesters, fighter-jets are scrambled over Cairo and communications services are suspended yet there is no clear condemnation.

The outcome of this turmoil has deep ramifications for Arab governments and will also have serious implications for future Israeli-US-Arab relations.

Netanyahu said that he will do everything to ‘reinforce the might of the state of Israel.’ Some analysts have said that these protests are about ‘them’ and not ‘us,’ the Western governments.

It would be naïve to ignore the West’s implicit support for autocratic governments, often putting short-term stability ahead of good governance and democracy.

A poem by Abul Qasim al-Shabi, a Tunisian, is on everyone’s lips in the Arab world: "If, one day the people want life, then fate will answer their call, the night will fade away, and the chains will be shattered."

Although the chains are cracking, the challenge will lie in re-building a dynamic civil-society after years of suppression.

However, as Zhou Enlai said about the outcome of the French Revolution: "It’s too soon to tell."