Who is François Fillon? Six months ago, anyone who does not follow French politics regularly would have struggled to answer; and the first image that would come up in the minds of French people would be that of a forgotten and inconsequential prime minister. And yet, against all odds and sound predictions, the candidate that people barely remembered won the 2016 right-wing primary, received the right-wing nomination for the 2017 French presidential election and thus became the most likely successor to President François Hollande.

In order to make up for a personal lack of charisma and energy, Fillon built his reputation on a strong adherence to a core set of Thatcherite policies. A proud Catholic and a staunch defender of economic orthodoxy, he appeals to the heart of the French right, made up of moderate religious bourgeois. His programme, advocating the abolition of the national legal work time and calling for a cut of 500,000 jobs in the civil service, is the most ambitious project presented by the right in the last few decades in terms of economic austerity and social reform. His refusal to moderate his policies, which would help him appeal to swing voters and to the working class, is reminiscent of the Iron Lady’s determination to remain constant in her beliefs.

“His refusal to moderate his policies, which would help him appeal to swing voters and to the working class, is reminiscent of the Iron Lady’s determination”

Fillon was not born a Thatcherite, however. Elected and reelected as an MP since 1981, and a Minister of various right-wing governments since 1993, he was chosen by Nicolas Sarkozy in 2007 to be his prime minister. Until then, he was mainly known as a support of the politician Philippe Séguin, a famous right-wing, protectionist and Eurosceptic figure.

The second longest-serving prime minister of the Fifth Republic, François Fillon’s tenure was nonetheless characterised by a subordination to the hyper-active President, Nicolas Sarkozy, and a lack of proper political personality. After a failed leadership bid following the defeat of Sarkozy in 2012, he withdrew from the political frontline and spent time developing a political programme. After coming back into the limelight in early 2016 in order to prepare his candidacy to the right-wing presidential primaries held in November, he presented a new set of ultra-liberal, Thatcher-like policies.

On 27 November, Fillon won a surprising and crushing victory over his opponent, Alain Juppé, by gathering 66.5 per cent of the vote. His nomination as the right-wing candidate for the presidential election was seen as a strong desire to go back to the core values and beliefs of the French right. While he created some enthusiasm among militants, his nomination still contained an element of ‘victory by default’, as it was also a rejection of Sarkozy’s populism and Juppé’s excessive moderation by the right-wing electorate.

“While he created some enthusiasm among militants, his nomination still contained an element of ‘victory by default’”

Despite his overwhelming success at the primary, Fillon is finding himself in a delicate situation today. The comparison with Thatcher is not a positive feature to bear by French political standards, and his lack of charisma and energy has left the wider electorate unimpressed. Right after his nomination, Fillon’s proposal to privatise part of the Sécurité Sociale (the French NHS), a highly unpopular idea in France, was met with controversy. Torn between a desire for consistency and a fear of scaring off the retired electorate, Fillon and his campaign staff have remained ambiguous on this point since then.

Right after his victory in the primaries and his nomination as the right-wing candidate, François Fillon was polling between 28 per cent and 32 per cent of the vote for the first round of the election; now, he is consistently polling between 23 per cent and 25 per cent of the vote. In 2012, at the same time, polls were putting Sarkozy at the same level despite a more unfavourable context, in an election that the incumbent president ended up losing.

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The truth is that Fillon’s electoral core is not a winning coalition. Among the previous right-wing presidents, Chirac was elected partly thanks to his down-to-earth and likeable personality, whereas Sarkozy rose to power through his energy and apparent desire to change things. Fillon lacks both charisma and likeability to appeal to the electorate at large. He also fails to prevent a positive political project, instead focusing on criticising the legacy of the left-wing government – without realising that his main opponents will be Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, and not the candidate of the Socialist Party.

“his would not be a popular presidency, and the spectre of right-wing populism would come back five years later to haunt French politics”

François Fillon might still win the presidency – and despite the negative dynamic he is facing, this still remains the most probable outcome. Yet, his would not be a popular presidency, and the spectre of right-wing populism would come back five years later to haunt French politics. Fillon’s strength in the right-wing primary might be his weakness in the presidential election: he is a figure of the old French right, and that is not a popular label to wear in an age of populism and political renewal