The assassination attempt on former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has been described as “the most significant operational failure” in decades for the US Secret Service, resulting in the resignation of their director. For the Republican Party, however, it looks like the almost-assassination could be spun into the most fortuitous event of their campaign so far. And for American democracy, it may well mark the beginning of its descent into ruin.

On July 13th 2024, 20 year old Thomas Crooks fired at Trump during his speech at a campaign rally near Butler, Pennsylvania. Trump narrowly escaped, unscathed apart from a bloody ear, but the impacts will reverberate throughout the forthcoming US election. At a time when American society and politics feels more deeply polarised than ever before, a failed assassination attempt was, politically, a stroke of luck for Trump. And neither he nor his fellow Republicans are blind to the political opportunities it has created.

Republicans lost no time in attributing blame to the Democrats, condemning what they alleged to be inflammatory rhetoric. In a private call made by President Biden a week before the incident, he stated “It’s time to put Trump in a bullseye.” J.D. Vance, who has since been named as the Republican nominee for vice president, wrote that “The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs. That rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination.” There is no ambiguity as to who key Republicans are blaming for the incident. None seem to feel that tolerant Republican attitudes towards the use and possession of guns (including in Project 2025, to which Trump has been linked) played any role in the events.

“The assassination attempt has played right into the hands of the Trump campaign’s ‘personality cult’ style of politics”

In the eyes of his supporters, Trump emerged from the shooting a hero. The image of him standing before the crowd with blood smeared across his face, and the American flag behind him, as he raised his fist and chanted “fight, fight, fight” is one that is sure to go down in history. His strong response to the threat is an all too clear contrast to the frailties of his previous opponent President Biden, who has since withdrawn from the race amid questions regarding his physical and cognitive capability to serve for another presidential term. This feeling amongst his supporters was strengthened at the subsequent Republican convention (July 15-18). Here, he formally accepted the Republican nomination, claiming “I stand before you in this arena only by the grace of Almighty God” before a crowd in which many were sporting bandages on their right ear to demonstrate their adoration. The assassination attempt has played right into the hands of the Trump campaign’s “personality cult” style of politics.

Not only was the assassination attempt a blow to Democrat chances of re-election, but it is also a threat to US democracy itself. The US is no stranger to periods of intense political violence. Systematic attacks on black voters during the Civil Rights era, anti-abortion violence in the 1970s and 1980s, and various assassination attempts on presidential nominees (some of which were successful), come to mind. It seems that violence is intrinsically tied to the political fate of the nation. But in the current moment, as America is more divided along partisan lines than ever before, the violence is less rooted in ideological matters and instead along partisan lines. Trump and his inflammatory rhetoric deserve significant blame for this, illustrated most clearly by the storming of the Capitol that he encouraged on January 6th 2021. The assassination attempt represents only the most recent incident in a rising tide of political violence that, if not curbed, poses a real threat to the future of American politics.

“Democracies across the world are becoming vulnerable to intense partisanship, a dangerous trend which is manifesting as radicalism”

But it is not just the US that is facing increasing polarisation within its political spectrum. Democracies across the world are becoming vulnerable to intense partisanship, a dangerous trend which is manifesting as radicalism. In the UK’s recent general election, the right-wing populist party Reform UK under Nigel Farage experienced new popularity and secured around 14% of the country’s total votes and five seats in parliament. The rising popularity of a party that promises a “revolt” and has been accused of racism, misogyny, and bigotry all too clearly represents the dangers of an increasingly polarised political environment that rewards extreme positions. The tense French legislative elections at the start of this month were also fiercely contested between the far right National Rally and the leftist New Popular Front, resulting in violent outbreaks. The dangers of radicalised polarisation are threatening global democracies and the US, with the presidential elections in November drawing nearer, is at a crucial point in this trajectory.

The recent assassination attempt on Trump is emblematic of the deep-rooted issues in both American and global democracy. Violence is coming to be perceived as a legitimate political tool, clear in the storming of the capitol and now in the Republican response to violence against the party. If Trump is elected, the threat to Democracy is only heightened. With plans to reshape the executive branch of the US government, Trump intends to concentrate even greater power in the personal hands of the president which, to me, seems a deeply concerning dictatorial ambition. This assassination attempt may have been another nail in the coffin for any American hopes of a stable democracy.