A society is secular if religion is marginalised and privatised. The Secularisation Hypothesis is the notion that as societies democratise and industrialise they characteristically secularise. Most Western Europeans, and most people in Cambridge University believe this implicitly, partly because it corresponds to our experience.

I wish to argue that our experience is limited and atypical. Most of the rest of the world does things differently, and there is little evidence that Britain, France, Sweden or Switzerland represents the future religious landscape of the world.

A brief survey of five avowedly secular states is illuminating. The following are discussed in ascending order of size.

Turkey represents slightly over 1% of the world’s population. It was declared a secular state in 1924 with the abolition of the Caliphate and the forcible introduction of Western customs. It is a democracy, and is rapidly industrialising, and both the democracy and the industrialisation have been closely connected with the election of a mildly Islamist party. Observers express real doubts whether the secular nature of Turkey will make it to a century.

Russia represents slightly over 2% of the world’s population. It was the centre of an atheist and persecuting USSR from 1917. This atheism was widely exported through the first half of the 20th century. Russian Orthodoxy is currently being used by the government to establish Russian national identity, with an extraordinary programme church building. (Its claims to be a democracy are contested)

The USA represents slightly more than 4.5% of the world’s population. It has a strong constitutional separation of Church and State. The significance of religion in presidential elections from the mid 20th century has steadily grown. It is a deeply religious country, (with a strong anti-religious minority). It has special significance as a key cultural "market leader". Pentecostalism, the fastest-growing Christian group in the second half of the 20th century retains strong cultural links with the USA.

India represents over 17% of the world’s population. India became independent in 1947 with a secular constitution. It has been a democracy since that time, and is rapidly industrialising. It remains one of the most religious countries in the world, and the significance of Hinduism for political discourse and national identity is steadily increasing.

China represents almost 20% of the world’s population. It has been an atheist state since the revolution in 1949. Religion has been tightly controlled and often persecuted. It is currently undergoing significant religious revivals.

The Christian component of this is hard to measure because much of it is based around house churches which deliberately divide rather than growing to a size that would need to register with the State. One estimate suggests that 10% of the population (130 million people) may be Christian. Another observer suggests that China may have the largest Christian and the largest Muslim communities in the world by 2050. (It is rapidly industrialising. Its claims to be a democracy are dubious. I have not heard it argued that it would be less religious if it were more democratic).

Between them these five countries with secular constitutions represent 45% of the world’s population. They provide a very powerful counter argument to the secularisation hypothesis and should make us alert to the fact that our experience of living in an increasingly secular context is, for better or worse, unusual.

There are, perhaps, two reasons to believe that the European experience of pervasive secularity is not only atypical, but likely to be temporary. Firstly, Globalisation, and the increase of immigration mean that cultural influences go increasingly in two directions. A religious world has more capacity to dilute the secularity in Europe, in the end, than a secular Europe has capacity to dilute the religiousness of the world. Secondly, one of the enduring strengths of religion is its ability to provide social structures, and places to belong, in an increasingly anonymous culture. Religious communities often offer a sense of belonging and identity not dissimilar, in some ways, to our colleges. They fulfil what appears to be a basic human need.

It is possible to argue that religion remains important in the world, and indeed that it may be becoming more important, without prejudging the question of whether this is a good thing. (My view is that good religion is a good thing, and bad religion is a bad thing).

If you are sure that this country and the world will become a less religious place over the next 50 years, please allow your complacency (or anxiety) to be disturbed.

Dr James Gardom is Dean of Dean of Pembroke college, and an Affiliated Lecturer in the Faculty of Divinity.