3:30am And so, as the dust settles after that dramatic final result, let’s take stock on what has changed.

The Liberal Democrats finish the night up one, winning in Castle and Market, but losing out in Trumpington. Labour are level, winning Trumpington but losing Market, while the Independents are down one after losing Castle.

In terms of percentage share of the vote, Labour are more or less unchanged from the 2016 result, winning 46% of the vote. The Liberal Democrats were second on 32% (up 4% on 2016), the Conservatives received 13% (up 1%), and the Greens won 9% (down 1%).

There were big swings to the Liberal Democrats in several wards, resulting in victories in West Chesterton (6% swing) and Castle (5% swing), but the most dramatic story of the night was the 8% swing achieved by Labour in Trumpington, which won the party their first Labour councillor in Trumpington for more than 70 years.

The new composition of the council has Labour on 26 seats, the Liberal Democrats on 14, with one apiece for the Greens and Independents. This leaves Labour with an overall majority on the council of 10, exactly what they started with.

That’s it from an exhausted Varsity team. It’s been an exciting night in the Cambridge Guildhall, but we’re going for some well earned sleep now!

3:24am Speaking to Daniel Zeichner, Labour MP for Cambridge, after his Party's success tonight, he is particularly happy about the results in Trumpington ward: "To win Trumpington is exceptional. We did very well at the general elections last year, but we haven’t won a council seat in Trumpington since 1945. So, big result and it leaves Labour with 26 councillors on the council, which is the most we’ve ever had, so we’re very happy with the results tonight."

Zeichner also mentions the results in University wards, Castle and Market: "What I would say is that in the University wards, we came very close in both Castle and Market - sadly, narrow losses for Labour in those wards, but we’ll be back and we’ll be winning them next year."

3:18am Labour MP Daniel Zeichner says "That was amazing, astonishing result for Labour"

3:13am A big chorus of the Red Flag as Labour secure a famous win in Trumpington. The swing of almost 8% is a victory in what has other been a disappointing night though 

3:10am And finally, here are the results for Trumpington ward: it's a Labour win - and an historic one at that, being their first in Trumpington since 1946. Katie Thornburrow is elected with a majority of just four votes!

Full results:

Katie Thornburow (LAB): 1302

Dan Hilken (LD): 1298

Philip Salway (CON): 561

Ceri Galloway (GRN): 293

3:03am Results for East Chesterton have been announced and it's a strong ward for Labour. They have managed to secure a double hold, as Carla Louise McQueen and Baijumon Thittalayil Varkey are elected.

Full results:

Carla McQueen (LAB): 1362

Baijumon Varkey (LAB): 1107

Owen Dunn (LD): 830

Shahida Rahman (LD): 811

Gareth Bailey (GRN): 345

Thomas Harwood (CON): 336

Timur Coskun (CON): 299

Peter Burkinshaw (UKIP): 93 

2:58am While we wait for the final results to come in, let's compare how Labour and the Lib Dems have done in their target seats.

Labour have already missed their top three targets, losing further ground in West Chesterton, Newnham, and Queen Edith's. Their hopes rest now on their number four target in Trumpington.

The Lib Dems have picked up their top target in Market, and their number three target in Castle. They'll be feeling hopeful of getting the swing they need to take East Chesterton, number two on their list

2:47am Still two results left to come in, from the ultra-marginal Trumpington ward, and the complicated double vote in East Chesterton. No indication on when we'll have results 

2:40am The swing data is clear: the Liberal Democrats are more popular now than they have been in recent history. What has prevented this from being a resounding success is that many seats are so safe for Labour that even big swings aren't enough.

Those Lib Dem swings from Labour are:

Arbury - 9.8%

West Chesterton - 6.3%

King's Hedges - 6.1%

Coleridge - 6.0%

Abbey - 5.9%

Cherry Hinton - 5.4%

Petersfield - 5.1%

Castle - 4.8%

Newnham - 3.4%

Market - 1.6%

Queen Edith's - 0.6%

The only pro-Labour swing so far is a massive 11.3% swing in Romsey

2:31am After the excitement of the bundle check in Castle ward, results have now been announced: it's a very narrow win for the Lib Dems, just 25 votes, as Cheney-Anne Payne takes the win. 

Full results:

Cheney-Anne Payne (LD):957

Mark Reader (LAB): 932

Othman Bankole Cole (CON): 245

Lukas Ruzowitzky (GRN): 184

Aidan Christopher Ulrich Powlesland (LIB): 26

2:24am Matters heat up in Trumpington ward, as a re-count has been announced. Apparently there's only six votes' difference, making this a very close decision, indeed. 

2:20am So, with three wards left to declare, let's remind ourselves what's still in store:

In East Chesterton, the Lib Dems will also be on the attack. A swing of around 4% would see the seat change hands, and with two seats up for grabs (a split result is very unlikely), it is perhaps the biggest prize on offer

There is a bundle count going on in Trumpington, where Labour are hoping to win a seat in a ward where they haven't had a councillors since 1946. An 8% swing, if they pull it off, would be a remarkable result for Labour and seriously buck the city-wide trend.

And finally, it's all to play for in Castle, where the Independent incumbent is standing down. There's a bundle check going on here too, so another close result is likely

2:17am West Chesterton is a (close) Lib Dem hold, as Jamie Dalzell is elected with 44% of the vote, versus 40% for Labour candidate Clare Francis King.

Full results:

Jamie Dalzell (LD): 1349

Clare King (LAB): 1228

Michael Harford (CON): 275

Mary Mitchell (GRN): 203

2:16am Queen Edith's ward is a LibDem hold, with Colin Stephen McGerty winning at 44%.

Full results:

Colin Stephen McGerty (LD):1259

Dan Greef (LAB): 827

Manas Deb (CON):543

Joel Chalfen (GRN):218

2:10am Another bundle check has been announced, this time for Castle ward - will it be a neck and neck race? 

2:09am Results for Coleridge ward have been announced and it's a further hold for Labour, as Lewis Herbert receives 56% of votes. 

Full results:

Lewis Herbert (LAB):1303

Lindsey Noah Tate (LD): 410

Donald Fisher Douglas (CON): 388

Sarah Louise Nicmanis (GRN):228

2:03am Away from the thick of the action, the Conservatives and the Greens will be pleased, although not thrilled, with their performance. 

They're pretty much bang on where they were at the last elections in 2016, at 12% and 10% of the vote respectively

2:01am Following his win, Anthony Martinelli says that he "thought it was going to be close" and is "delighted". He identifies the biggest issues for students as rough sleeping and homelessness: "It's quite distressing, especially in a big and rich city such as Cambridge - as is air quality."

Martinelli further says that his ward covers eight central colleges and would like students to get in touch, as they are "a compassionate bunch". 

2:00am It took a long time (we've been here four hours) but there's some good news for Labour at last. An 11% swing in their favour in Romsey bucks the general trend, and a close result in Trumpington suggests a strong performance incoming there too

1:56am Excitingly, a bundle check has been announced for Trumpington, which is suggestive of a close result. We shall be waiting to hear more. 

1:55am A big sigh of relief as Romsey turns out to be a comfortably Labour hold, with Dave Baigent taking 59% of the vote.

Full results:

Dave Baigent (LAB): 1461

Joshua Blanchard (LD): 563

Caitlin Patterson (GRN): 269

Martin Keegan (CON): 170

1:49am This might look like good news for Labour - they've won 5 out of 7 so far, but don't be fooled. 

The Lib Dems have won a swing from Labour in every seat that has declared so far, often quite large ones, of 5% and above. It's also they who have made the only gain of the night so far, in Market ward.

The only Labour safe seat that is left to declare is Coleridge. After that, all of the remaining seven seats are within striking distance for the Lib Dems.

1:40am Cherry Hinton, just about the safest Labour seat around, is a further Labour hold. Full results:

Russ McPherson (LAB): 1282

Eric Barrett-Payton (CON): 441

John Oakes (LD): 364

Jenny Richens (GRN): 171

1:38am Labour has also been able to hold Abbey ward, at 57% for Nicky Massey.

Full results: 

Nicky Massey (LAB): 1283

Nicky Shepard (LD): 466

Naomi Anne Bennett (GRN): 263

David Philip Smith (CON): 240

1:33am Dylan Coll-Reed, Conservative Party candidate and CUCA chairman, is gracious in his defeat in Arbury ward, congratulating Patrick Sheil on his victory. 

He adds: "Nationally, tonight is looking like a strong night for the Conservative Party, so far we have made gains and even won Nuneaton council. I'll be keeping a close eye on the rest of Cambridge and national results."

1:30am Labour have been able to hold Petersfield at 58% for Ann Marie Sinnott. Full results:

Ann Marie Sinnott (LAB): 1256

Sarah Brown (LD): 432

Virgil Ierubino (GRN): 278

Simon Lee (CON): 189

1:29am We've have a Lib Dem GAIN as former University Challenge winner Anthony Martinelli takes Market ward.

Full results:

Anthony Martinelli (LD): 866

Dan Ratcliffe (LAB): 744

Jeremy Caddick (GRN): 229

Henry Mitson (CON): 153

1:27am It's a Lib Dem hold in Newnham, with Rod Cantrill winning reelection with 50% of the vote. Full results:

Rod Cantrill (LD): 1139

Michael Davey (LAB): 825

Connor MacDonald (CON): 165

Mark Slade (GRN): 164

1:27am So that's two thoroughly predictable holds for Labour, but both have come with healthy swings to the Liberal Democrats - 6% in King's Hedges, and 10% in Arbury. 

Swings of that size across the board could see the Liberal Democrats clean up all of their target seats

1:18am Labour also manage to hold Arbury, as Patrick Sheil is elected with 51% of votes. 

Full results:

Patrick Sheil (LAB): 1215

Tim Ward (LD): 595

Dylan Coll-Reed (CON): 351

Stephen Lawrence (GRN): 219

1:17am We have a first result! As expected it is a comfy Labour hold in King's Hedges, with Martin Smart being reelected with 52% of the vote. Full results:

Martin Smart (LAB): 952

Daniele Gibney (LD): 397

Anette Kirimi (CON): 302

Angela Ditchfield (GRN): 165

1:08am Things are now progressing at a snails pace as the fiddly bits are sorted out - dealing with the spoiled ballots, and validating the final votes totals.

Nationally, the pattern seems to be pretty much identical to last year's general election - the Tories are doing well in pro-Brexit areas, Labour are doing well in pro-Remain areas, the Lib Dems are undergoing a small renaissance, and the UKIP and Green votes are in freefall. 

Hopefully it won't be too long now before we see if the pattern in Cambridge lives up to the national picture

12:51am The CUCA contingent are in a buoyant mood on the press balcony - Henry Mitson reveals exclusively that he has "made gains".

I, for one, am unconvinced.

12:49am While continuing to wait for results, we spoke to Connor MacDonald, Conservative candidate in Newnham, who thinks that "nationally, it's going to be a better night than anticipated" for the Tories, referring to Jeremy Corbyn as a "busted flush". 

12:41am Could it be so? There are certainly a lot of full trays, and some not very busy looking vote counters. 

Perhaps we could be looking at some declarations soon?

The East Chesterton "grass skirts" are being laboriously put together one paper at a time. Looks like counting is largely completed in most of the other wards I can see. Still some going on in Cherry Hinton.

— Phil Rodgers (@PhilRodgers) May 3, 2018

12:32am Still waiting for our first result - in Sunderland all 75 seats have been declared and everyone is of home.

Spare a thought for us...

12:25am Daniel Zeichner is in the building - and is spotted chatting to election agents, who have spent the evening in nervous huddles as we await the first result.

Will Cambridge's MP be smiling at the end of the night? BBC election guru, and my personal hero, Professor Sir John Curtice, is suggesting that the results so far suggest an encouraging night for the Liberal Democrats.

At this local level, however, broad patterns are hard to spot, so this is still anyone's to win

12:20am We have to keep ourselves entertained somehow while we wait for something (anything?!) to happen. Up on the press balcony, poetry seems to be flourishing. Who would have guessed?

Shall I compare thee to election day?
Thou art more lovely and far more short
Rough winds do shake the darling stakeboards of May,
And summer’s leaflets are all athwart#betShakespeareneverhadtoknockup #countpoems

— Carina O'Reilly (@carinaoreilly) May 3, 2018

12:14am We have just received an overview of the voter turnout in each of the 14 wards. Surprisingly, turnout in student wards has been rather low at only 33.2% in Market, 39.8% in Newnham, and 35.1% in Castle. 

West Chesterton has had the highest turnout at 49.7%, followed by Queen Edith's at 43.1%.

12:13am Elsewhere, Labour councillor Kevin Price, dressed in his famous red suit, is confident that Labour will win in West Chesterton, their number one target, and is bullish about the prospect of them taking Trumpington too. If he's right, then this will be a bad night for the Liberal Democrats

12:10am Timur Coskun, Conservative candidate for East Chesterton and one of the students running to be on the city council gives us a take on the mood in the room: "It's still very early days, but it seems like LibDem and Labour are confident. The Tories are trying to increase what they have, rather than being too optimistic - we'll see how the evening progresses."

Conservative candidate and Trinity College student Timur Coskun talks to Varsity pic.twitter.com/ObC1Mfh0Ts

— Varsity (@VarsityUK) May 3, 2018

11:53pm It's a 37.8% turnout for this election. That's not quite as high as was managed for last year's county council elections, but is relatively high. 

This is possibly good news for Labour, who will be hoping that a strong turnout in student wards will help their performance

11:53pm So now you're up to date with the state of play, we return to waiting for something to happen. 

Counting into favour is now going on in the majority of wards, so optimistically we could have some news fairly soon. Its' likely to be at least an hour before we get our first result though.

11:50pm There are two candidates that haven’t yet been mentioned. The first is Peter Burkinshaw, the only UKIP candidate in this election, who is running in East Chesterton. Burkinshaw has earned infamy for his anti-cyclist position in previous campaigns, claiming “if everybody cycled, there would be no roads to ride on”, accusing cyclists of “stealing road space from the people who pay for it, and describing sustainable transport as “using things that other people pay for”.

The other is Aidan Powlesland, who is standing in Castle on the ticket of the Libertarian Party UK. Formerly a UKIP candidate for the South Suffolk parliamentary seat, and last-place finisher in the leadership contest that swept Henry Bolton (briefly) to power, Powlesland is perhaps most famous for his policy of providing government sponsorship for mining the asteroid belt.

Neither, I am relieved to say, have any chance of winning.

11:46pm The Greens are also standing in every ward, and their best hope to win a second seat comes again in Market - where they require a 14.4% swing against Labour and the Liberal Democrats to leap from third place in 2016 to win this time.

As the Greens seem likely to lose their second place in Abbey ward to the Liberal Democrats, the best that can be realistically hoped for outside of Market would be for the Greens to hold on to second place in the safely Labour seat of Petersfield.

11:43pm But what about the smaller parties, I hear you cry!

To put it simply, there’s no chance. The Conservatives are standing in every ward, but a win would be nothing short of miraculous. Their best hope would be to secure massive swings in one of the Liberal Democrat wards in the south of the city - a 15.5% swing in Trumpington, where the Tories had a councillor as recently as 2015, or a 17.7% swing in Queen Edith’s might see the Conservatives return to the city council, but in both wards the Lib Dems have much more reason to be concerned about Labour.

A good night for the Conservatives would see them pinch a couple of second places, probably in the the very heavily Labour wards.

11:39pm And finally, the most interesting battle tonight will certainly be in Castle. Containing eleven colleges, this ward is currently held by independent Marie Louise-Holland, who is standing down at this election. With no independent candidate standing in her stead, this seat will be a straight fight between Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

Labour outpolled the Liberal Democrats in 2016, when another independent, John Hipkin, successfully defended his seat; however, the ward’s third councillor, Valerie Holt, is a Lib Dem. It will take a 4.3% swing to the Liberal Democrats for them to beat Labour this time, but without an independent candidate this is a strong possibility for either party - it’s Labour’s number two target and the Lib Dems’ number three.

11:37pm Market (which has just started counting into favour) contains eight colleges and is currently the only ward whose councillors are split between three parties - Labour, the Lib Dems, and the city’s only Green councillor, Oscar Gillespie. It is Labour’s seat that is being defended this time, and after successfully defending Tim Bick’s seat in 2016, the Liberal Democrats will be bullish about securing their number one target this time around, although Labour require a swing of just 1.5% to hold on.

In 2015, the top three candidates in Market were split by just thirteen votes, and Bick’s majority in 2016 was just sixty, so expect Market to once again produce a wafer-thin result between Labour incumbent Dan Ratcliffe and former University Challenge winner Anthony Martinelli representing the Liberal Democrats.

There’s plenty of University interest in this ward, as Martinelli’s fellow Caian Henry Mitson is standing in Market for the Conservatives (as he did unsuccessfully in last year’s county council elections), while Emmanuel College Dean, Jeremy Caddick, is standing for the Green Party

11:32pm Anyway, back to the picture in Cambrdige, and time to take a look at the student wards.

Nine colleges are included in Newnham ward, which has been solidly Liberal Democrat over the last fifteen years. Recently selected Lib Dem parliamentary candidate Rod Cantrill is seeking a fifth straight term, and must be odds-on favourite to win again, although this is number three on Labour’s target list. A swing of 3.5% would deliver the upset result of the night.

Keep an eye on former CUSU presidential candidate Connor MacDonald who is standing for the Conservatives in Newnham. Here’s a clue - he’s not going to win this one either…

11:28pm An interesting tidbit of national news - the first result of the night is in and it's a whopping big win for the Liberal Democrats, securing a 57% swing!

It's the Pallion ward of Sunderland City Council though, so for any yellows tuning in, don't get your hopes up just yet...

11:26pm You're not wrong Phil, we're having to keep ourselves entertained with ifs and maybes and theories for the time being. 

The good news is that the first stage of the votes (where the ballots are checked to ensure there are the right number) is complete in three wards: King's Hedges, Arbury, and Abbey, and those votes are now being sorted into favour.

We're now at that stage of the evening where...nothing very exciting is going to happen for a while.

— Phil Rodgers (@PhilRodgers) May 3, 2018

11:24pm The mid-term resignation of Labour councillor Margery Abbott means that two seats are being contested in East Chesterton. Labour colleague and incumbent Peter Sarris, a Trinity College fellow, is also standing down, meaning that there is no incumbent advantage in this seat. Some student interest comes from the Conservatives, who have selected Trinity College student Timur Coskun and Durham University and former NUS presidential candidate Tom Harwood as their representatives

Despite five Labour wins in a row in this ward, the Liberal Democrats need just a 3.7% swing to win here, making it number two on their target list. The unusual double election raises the possibility that some voters may choose to split their votes between parties, and, in the event of a close outcome, it is possible that the seats might be shared in the outcome.

At any rate, whichever candidate finishes second will have little respite, as they will be forced to defend their seat in 2020 to resynchronise the election cycle.

11:19pm Next is West Chesterton. The Liberal Democrats are defending here but in 2016 it was Labour who prevailed, and so the Lib Dems will need at 4.3% swing to hold on to the seat.

West Chesterton has a reputation for producing ultra-marginal results, with the winner having  a majority of less than 100 votes in three of the last four contests. With Lib Dem incumbent Ysanne Austin standing down, another close result seems likely, but, following last year’s success this is Labour’s number one target seat.

11:11pm Romsey is now a Labour stronghold, but until recently was a solidly Lib Dem area - they lost their final seat in this ward in 2016 when longstanding councillor Catherine Smart was ousted. If the Liberal Democrats have performed very well, they just might be able to secure the 7% swing needed to take the seat from Labour.

Labour majorities have been growing steadily over the last three years, however, so the expectation is that this seat will stay red this year.

11:05pm Which brings us to our battleground seats, which will be the real ones to watch as the night draws on.

First up is Abbey. On the face of it, this should be a Labour hold - all but two city council elections since 1970 have been won by Labour, and the Lib Dems would need a monumental 31.5% swing from 2016 to take the seat.

That said though, the Lib Dems came within 100 votes of taking the seat at last year’s county council election, and are standing the same candidate, Nicky Shepard, again, while Labour incumbent Peter Roberts is stepping down.

This one would be a big surprise, but don’t count it out.

11:00pm You might not think that there is such thing as a Lib Dem safe seat any more, but they can be fairly confident of victories in Queen Edith’s and Trumpington, which between them have only elected two representatives from outside the Liberal Democrats in the last twenty years.

Swings of 7-8% needed for Labour to grab these seats are just within the boundaries of possibility, and there is no incumbent advantage as both incumbents are standing down, but expect the Liberal Democrats to hold on here

10:56pm Firstly, let’s get the foregone conclusions out of the way. Labour will win the five seats they need to retain control of the council in Arbury, Cherry Hinton, Coleridge, King’s Hedges, and Petersfield.

In all five cases, the ward has elected all three of its current councillors from Labour, and incumbents are standing for reelection.

Only vast swings of 20% or more to the Liberal Democrats will risk unseating Labour, and we can safely say that isn’t going to happen.

10:52pm There are fifteen seats in play tonight, one in each of Cambridge’s fourteen city council wards except East Chesterton, which is electing two representatives. Labour have got the hardest work to do, defending ten seats, while the Liberal Democrats defend four. One seat, in Castle ward, is completely undefended, with the incumbent Independent standing down.

Labour, who currently have a majority of ten, could lose control of the council, but only a dream night for the Liberal Democrats would see that happen.

It’s a pretty sure fire bet that Labour will still have a majority come the morning, but with more city council elections coming in each of the next two years, tonight’s results will have longer-term repercussions

10:50pm This is the way things stand at the moment

From @CRRosenstiel's https://t.co/NYgUsYCvLj website, here's how the council composition has changed over the years. The current Labour group is as large as it has ever been. pic.twitter.com/x0zf7Iolpm

— Phil Rodgers (@PhilRodgers) May 3, 2018

10:49pm After the flurry of excitement as the first ballot boxes arrived, things have quietened down again in the Guildhall. It’ll be a number of hours before the first ward declares a result, so let’s use the lull to take a look at what’s up for grabs this year.

10:42pm And the ballot boxes are in! Excitement reigns as the counting gets underway!

Ballot boxes have arrived! pic.twitter.com/GhBnGSizpM

— Varsity (@VarsityUK) May 3, 2018

10:21pm Devastating mumblings that it could be 2am before we have our first result. 

Things are likely to be complicated also by the double election going on in the East Chesterton ward, but more on that in a little while...

10:15pm 15 minutes ago, polls closed all across the country, and now we are awaiting the arrival of the ballot boxes, and the start of counting. Strap in, it's going to be a wild, and most of all long, night...

10:12pm Good evening everyone, and welcome to Varsity's coverage of the 2018 Cambridge City Council elections.

We're Matthew Gutteridge, Anna Mochar, and Harry Clynch, and we'll be bringing you up to the minute information a the night goes on!